DPZ Even Our High on the Sell-Side Q2E U.S. Comp Forecast Proves Too Low

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 27, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After yesterday’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $360.16) provided a business update. Following our May 12th report in which we raised our Q2E samestore sales forecast to a sell-side high of +8.6% (it is still the high sell-side forecast as of 4 PM Eastern time yesterday, according to Consensus Metrix), Domino’s comments that its April 20-May 17 U.S. same-store sales rose by +20.9%, placing Q2-to-date (through May 17th) at +14.0%.

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PZZA Adjusting Q2E-Q3E EPS Estimates a Little More

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16), we adjusted our 2020E EPS estimate downward by -40 cents to $1.15, reflecting: (1) a -50 cent hit for Q1A-Q3E adjustments to how Papa John’s records franchisee financial assistance (related to royalty relief and the discretionary marketing fund), with -26 cents of this having taken place in Q1, and our estimate of -12 cent hits each to Q2E and Q3E, and (2) +10 cents reflecting better-than-expected April North American same-store sales trends and the momentum resulting from this.

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PZZA Some Cheesy Estimate Revisions

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 15, 2020 at 12:00 AM

The price of block cheese has deteriorated from $1.8375 per pound as of March 23rd to $1.01 per pound as of April 14th. In our coverage list, the largest potential beneficiary of this dynamic is Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), which owns and operates about 18% of its North American store base (or to look at it another way, Papa John’s owns and operates about 11% of its worldwide store base).

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