DIN Adios to Our Prior Q3E Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 29, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Given weaker-than-expected same-store sales trends in the family-dining and casualdining sector quarter-to-date, we lower our Q3E same-store sales forecasts for IHOP and Applebee’s (both owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Neutral]). For IHOP, our Q3E samestore sales estimate is reduced by -140 basis points, to +0.8%, which becomes the new “low on the sell-side” forecast, according to Consensus Metrix data. For Applebee’s, we take down our Q3E projection by -150 basis points, to -1.5%, as compared to current sell-side consensus of -1.2%.

DIN (Post-Call) Questions Arise as $1 Mai Tais Arrive

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 31, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Neutral) — the owner of the IHOP family-dining concept and the Applebee’s casual-dining concept — reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $1.71. While this came in slightly ahead of our recently-lowered $1.70 forecast, it fell short of the $1.81 sell-side consensus.

DENN (Post-Call) Accelerated Refranchising and Grand Slam Same-Store Sales

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 30, 2019 at 12:00 AM

After today’s market close, Denny’s (DENN; Buy) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.23, ahead of our $0.18 estimate and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.18. We attribute the EPS beat to some “tax provision benefits” — the Q2 actual (adjusted) tax rate was -1.2%; a more normalized tax rate of approximately 20.0% would have led to an adjusted EPS number of about $0.18, by our calculations.