By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on June 7, 2021 at 9:05 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2E to +32.6%. This is the one-year figure, lapping the -10.7% number from Q2 2020. On a two-year basis, the Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q2E is at +18.3%. These numbers are based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during April, May, and early June.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on June 3, 2021 at 9:12 PM
May 2021 was the second full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service. To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that much over the remainder of 2021, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 1, 2021 at 4:57 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1E to +12.9%. This is based on what we believe was better-than-expected same-store sales for the fast-casual sector in both January and March, partially offset by a weakerthan-expected February. Of particular note is that for the week of March 16-22, we believe that segment same-store sales rose by 50%+ on a one-year basis, or by positive mid-teens on a two-year basis. Factors driving this mid-to-late March surge appear to include: (1) consumer-related stimulus spending, (2) growing consumer optimism as more folks get vaccinated for Covid-19, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for delivery, including for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) and Wingstop (WING; Not Rated).
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