WEN (Post-Call) Fundamentally Solid Conf Call Featuring Wendy’s on on Nov. 16th

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 4, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Wendy’s reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.19, which exceeded our $0.16 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.17. Drivers of the outperformance included better-than-expected restaurant-level margins (16.9% actual vs. our 15.3% projection and consensus at 15.6%) and G&A/ Revenues (10.5% actual vs. our 11.1% forecast and consensus at 11.0%). Thirdquarter adjusted EBITDA reached $118.8 million, above our $108.8 million estimate and also above consensus of $112.0 million. These results are impressive given the extra marketing spend of about $6.2 million focused on the breakfast daypart that was made in Q3 (and for which we expect ~$6.5 million in Q4E).

WEN Is Wendy’s Overtaking Burger King as the #2 U.S. Burger Concept

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 15, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Based on our math, it looks like Wendy’s is in the process of decisively overtaking Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) as the 2nd-largest burger concept in the U.S., based on domestic systemwide sales.

Updating our Q3E Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 14, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3E to -2.3%. Given all of the upheaval of the last six months, this is a number that should be considered favorably, even though it is in negative territory. It marks substantial sequential improvement from Q2 2020’s -17.5% figure, and is even better than Q1 2020’s -3.3% showing.