Restaurants: BlackBox Index for Feb. 2021 Could be Last Negative for a While

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 11, 2021 at 4:37 PM

Earlier today (Thursday, March 11th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for February 2021 was down by -12.6%, with same-store traffic off by -19.1%. The -12.6% figure is 770 basis points sequentially worse than the January 2021 index number of -4.9%.

Read More

DENN (Post-Call): U.S. Same-Store Sales -25% for First Two Weeks of February

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 16, 2021 at 5:03 PM

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Denny’s reported adjusted Q4 EPS of -$0.05, lower than our +$0.01 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.04. Relative to our model, we attribute the Q4 EPS shortfall primarily to Payroll and Benefits/Company Restaurant Sales (44.4% actual vs. 41.5% projected).

Read More

The BlackBox Index for February 2019 Disappoints…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 7, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today (Thursday, March 7th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for February 2019 declined by -0.6%, with same-store traffic down by -3.7%. The -0.6% showing for February 2019 marks meaningful sequential deceleration from the +2.0% number from January 2019 and the +2.0% figure from December 2018, which had been the best monthly numbers since August 2015. February was hampered to a large degree by weather (although we’d note January experienced some bad weather too, and January clearly seemed to shrug off that issue much more easily), particularly on the east coast and in the midwest. (February 2019 same-store sales were positive in California, the southeast, and the southwest.)

Read More