By Mark Kalinowski
Published on October 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral) reported third-quarter EPS of $2.11, falling short of our $2.21 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.21. Tax rate accounts for $0.02-$0.03 of the difference between actual and our forecast. Other factors behind the EPS miss include lower-thananticipated revenues from franchisee/affiliates ($3.014 billion actual vs. $3.090 billion projected), weaker-than-projected franchised margins (81.4% actual vs. 81.9% projected), lower-than-anticipated Other Operating Income ($49.5 million actual vs. $66.2 million estimated), and higher-than-forecasted SG&A/Revenues (10.0% actual vs. 9.8% forecasted).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on September 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we reduce our Q3E same-store sales forecast for brand Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral) by -30 basis points, to +0.2%, placing us as the low forecast on the sell-side according to Consensus Metrix data. Our adjustment reflects weak casual-dining sector same-store sales trends for July and August, partially offset by The Cheesecake Factory’s relatively healthier brand (destination status) within casual dining. Our Q3E EPS estimate goes down by $0.01 to $0.55, placing us in line with consensus. We also take down our Q4E EPS estimate by $0.01 (to $0.64), and reduce our full-year 2019E EPS projection by $0.02, to $2.63.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Yum Brands (YUM; Buy) reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.82, surpassing our $0.72 forecast (which had incorporated an anticipated -$0.09 hit from markto-market of Yum’s investment in GrubHub [GRUB; Not Rated]) and the $0.81 consensus number (likely not apples-to-apples with our forecast). Yum notes that “We reflected the change in fair value of our investment in Grubhub by recording $20 million of pre-tax investment expense, resulting in a negative ($0.05) impact in EPS.”
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