DPZ The Low Point for The New Normal… Or Not

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 16, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) reported second-quarter EPS of $2.19, ahead of our $2.04 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.02. However, a lower-than-projected tax rate of 12.9% (versus our 20.5% projection and consensus of 19.8%) helped EPS by about $0.20 relative to our forecast. On the other hand, EPS was hampered by about $0.04 related to a loss on the sale of 59 New York City area stores. Taking the tax-rate and refranchising loss issues out, Q2 EPS would have been one cent below our forecast and one cent above sell-side consensus.

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CAKE Cites Potential of 200 North Italia Units for the U.S. Over Time

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM

After today’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral) reported Q1 2019 adjusted EPS of $0.62, ahead our $0.61 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.60.

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MCD (Post-Call) Weak Same-Store Sales Trends Not Today

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 30, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) reported its Q1 EPS of $1.72, above our $1.71 forecast, but below the sell-side consensus of $1.75. But the real story is that U.S. same-store sales rose by an unexpectedly robust +4.5%, easily surpassing our above-consensus +3.2% projection. McDonald’s attributes the strong showing to “successful promotions, including the Bacon Event, the 2 for $5 Mix and Match deal, and Donut Sticks, as well as a net positive impact from our Experience of the Future deployment.” On this latter front, management noted on today’s conference call that this is the first time ever that it can make this statement. We look for this effect to continue in coming quarters.

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