By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we retain our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast at +3.2%. In the previous 80 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 73 times (91.3% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 56 times (70.0% of the time).
Read More
By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 24, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) reported Q1 EPS of $2.20, ahead of our $2.10 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.09. The Q1 tax rate came in at 15.1%, more favorable than our 20.5% estimate (and 20.5% consensus). By our math, had the Q1 actual tax rate been 20.5%, then all else equal, Q1 EPS would have been $2.06.
Read More
By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Ahead of Yum Brands’ (YUM; Buy) first-quarter earnings release — scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, May 1st — we look at a key positive and a key risk surrounding YUM. Most importantly on the positive side of the ledger, based on our data-driven checks, we raise our Q1 same-store sales forecast for Taco Bell by one percentage point, to +5%, as we believe that brand’s momentum, innovation, and differentiation continue to pay off. Promotions during various parts of the first quarter included Steak Rattlesnake Fries, the Steak Rattlesnake Burrito, the return of the Naked Chicken Chalupa, and the return of Nacho Fries. Our Q2E same-store sales forecast is also boosted by one percentage point, to +4%, and that is not a bestcase scenario if the second quarter trends well. We’ll see…
Read More
