By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 28, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Ahead of The Cheesecake Factory’s (CAKE; Neutral) fourth-quarter earnings release scheduled for after the market close on Wednesday, February 20th, we bump up our Q4 2018 same-store sales forecast for brand Cheesecake Factory by +60 basis points to a new sell-side high projection (according to Consensus Metrix data) of +1.6%. Sell-side consensus as of this writing is at +1.0%.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we adjust our Q4E U.S. same-store sales forecast upward by +40 basis points, to +2.6%. In the previous 79 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 72 times (91.1% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 55 times (69.6% of the time).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on our data-driven checks regarding Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) and the burger sector regarding December, we bump up our Q4E same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s North America by +50 basis points to +0.5%. While we still believe Wendy’s had a rough go of it in November (our Wendy’s checks for November 2018 were the worst of any month since those we did for February 2012), December appeared to be a meaningful bounce-back month sequentially — better than we expected. Our Q4E EPS estimate remains at $0.15.
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