By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 3, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Following our data-driven checks, we increase our Q4E 2018 same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +70 basis points, to a new “sell-side high” (according to Consensus Metrix data) of +2.0%. IHOP, the largest family dining concept in the U.S. as determined by domestic systemwide sales, likely benefited from family dining’s robust November 2018 (which will end up as either the best month or the secondbest month during 2018 for family-dining sector same-store sales) and strong start to December 2018.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 18, 2018 at 12:00 AM
For Domino’s (DPZ; Buy), we lower our Q4E same-store sales forecast by 100 basis points, to +3.5%. This places us 80 basis points below sell-side consensus, and also ties us for the low sell-side projection, according to Consensus Metrix data. (FYI, our below-consensus Q4E EPS estimate remains unchanged at $2.64.)
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 6, 2018 at 12:00 AM
After today’s market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.20. This was below our $0.25 forecast and the sell-side consensus estimate (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.22. The company also updated its full-year 2018 EPS target range to $1.30-$1.60 (the previous target had been $1.30-$1.80). With the first three quarters of 2018 reported, and doing the math, the updated fullyear 2018 EPS target range implies a Q4 EPS target range of $0.01-$0.31. With the Q3 EPS miss, and us believing it prudent at this time to not be at the high end of this implied Q4 EPS target range, we lower our Q4 EPS estimate by $0.11, to $0.20 (from $0.31). This brings down our full-year 2018E EPS estimate by $0.16, to $1.49. Given this lower base of anticipated earnings coming off of this year, we also take down our 2019E EPS estimate by $0.05, to $1.45 (keeping in mind that earnings year-overyear in both Q1 2019 and Q2 2019 are likely to be down).
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