By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Ahead of Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) first quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, April 24th, we raise our Q1 U.S. (blended) samestore sales forecast by +160 basis points, to +4.5%. Based on our checks, we believe that Domino’s latest ad campaign — centered around “Points for Pies” — has been successful. Consumers apparently have responded well to the aspect of this that points can be earned from “eating any pizza you love, from anywhere. Yep, even if it’s not Domino’s.” Of course, many of the things that Domino’s has done well for years — an improved core product, technological excellence, the “Piece of the Pie Rewards” loyalty program, etc. — are all playing an integrated role in what appears to have been another successful quarter for the brand.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on February 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on our checks related to January and the first half of February, we tweak upward our U.S. same-store sales forecast for Q1E by +30 basis points, to +3.3%. This places us 40 basis points above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +2.9%. We are encouraged by what we hear about Q1 so far, particularly given that weather has been a challenge at some points over January/February. McDonald’s initiatives — including fresh-beef quarter-pound beef patties (amongst other menu improvements) and the recent Big Mac Bacon, Quarter Pounder Bacon, and Cheesy Bacon Fries promotion — appear to be resonating well with guests. We do caution that the quarter is not over yet, and in particular we still have March to go, so of course our updated +3.3% forecast for Q1E U.S. same-store sales remain subject to change depending on our checks related to the back half of the quarter.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 24, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Following the completion of our data-driven check process regarding Domino’s (DPZ; Buy), we raise our Q4E same-store sales forecast for Domino’s U.S. business by +50 basis points, to +7.9%. This places us 80 basis points above sell-side consensus, according to Consensus Metrix data. Our Q4E forecast for the U.S. franchised business rises by +50 basis points to +8.0% (consensus is at +7.2%), and our Q4E projection for the U.S. company-owned segment rises by +50 basis points to +6.5% (consensus is at +6.6%).
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