DENN (Post-Call) Beyond Refranchising

By Mark Kalinowski Published on February 11, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After today’s (Tuesday’s) market close, Denny’s (DENN; Buy) reported adjusted Q4 2019 EPS of $0.23, ahead of our $0.16 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.17. Factors in the Q4 EPS outperformance include: (1) better-than-expected Product Costs/Company Restaurant Sales (24.3% actual vs. our 24.8% forecast), (2) better-than-expected Payroll & Benefits/Company Restaurant Sales (37.6% actual vs. our 38.1% estimate, (3) better-than-expected Other Operating Costs/Company Restaurant Sales (14.2% actual vs. our 15.5% projection, (4) better-than-expected G&A Expenses/Revenues (13.5% actual vs. our 14.2% estimate), (5) better-than-expected D&A/Revenues (3.7% actual vs. our 4.3% forecast), (6) better-than-expected net interest expense ($3.57 million actual vs. our $4.50 million projection), and (7) a favorable tax rate (20.0% actual vs. our 21.3% estimate).

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DNKN (Post-Call) 2020 EPS Guidance Weighs on the Stock Somewhat

By Mark Kalinowski Published on February 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral) reported adjusted Q4 2019 EPS came to $0.73, ahead of our $0.71 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.70.

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SBUX Correlating U.S. Same-Store Sales and Growth in Starbucks Rewards

By Mark Kalinowski Published on December 10, 2019 at 12:00 AM

In theory, accelerating Starbucks Rewards (U.S. loyalty program) active membership should lead to better Starbucks U.S. same-store sales. But does it, or not? In our correlation of these two metrics over the last 16 quarters, we find that there is indeed a positive correlation.

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