With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q3E to +4.3%. As a reminder, we define “quick-service other” as all quick-service concepts excluding the pizza, burger, and sandwich categories.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q3E to +3.6%. While the overall number for the fast-casual sector is in positive territory for Q3, there is a wide variety of performances in terms of same-store sales by individual brand. Wingstop (WING; Not Rated) has already reported +25.4% same-store sales growth for its Q3, and we would not be surprised to see Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) exceed sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +6.4% when it reports its Q3 results on after the market close on Wednesday, October 21st.
For the second time in a month, we raise our Q3E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. — this time by +60 basis points, to +3.6%. This is based on robust same-store sales from the second half of September, thanks largely to: (1) a limitedtime promotional tie-in with rapper Travis Scott (which launched September 8th), and (2) a limited-time offer featuring Spicy Chicken McNuggets (which launched September 16th). Both of these promotions did so well that at times restaurants were sold out of the items involved well before the official promotional end dates.