Earlier today, Dine Brands (DIN; Buy) reported adjusted Q4 2018 EPS of $1.70, surpassing our $1.60 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.57.
Following our data-driven checks regarding Applebee’s, we increase our Q4E 2018 same-store sales projection for that brand by +80 basis points, to a new “sell-side high” of +4.0%. We believe that Applebee’s — the nation’s largest casual dining concept, as measured by domestic systemwide sales — in particular enjoyed a solid December, during which time the Neighborhood Drink of the Month was the Dollar Jolly (lapping December 2017’s $1 Long Island Iced Teas), as well as a successful November (which featured $2 Bud Lights — Dilly! Dilly! — as compared to no nationwide drink special during November 2017; also, Bigger, Bolder Grill Combos were brought back as a featured promotion in mid-November 2018).
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4E from +1.6% to +2.0%. This 40 basis-point increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance so far for this segment during the second half of November and the first half of December. (We would note that this increase follows the 40 basis-point increase we already made to this index back on December 3rd; for more details please refer to our report of that date entitled “Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Family Dining Index.”)