The BlackBox Index for May 2019 is…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on June 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today (Thursday, June 6th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for May 2019 increased by +1.1%, with same-store traffic down by -2.1%. The +1.1% showing for May 2019 tied for the 6th-best showing of the last 12 months, and evinces 150 basis points worth of sequential improvement from April 2019’s -0.4% decline.

Read More

MCD Efforts to Speed Up the Drive-Thru Already Paying Off

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 23, 2019 at 12:00 AM

So far this year, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. same-store sales seem to be meaningfully outpacing those of its quick-service burger rivals. Why is this? How sustainable is it? While there are multiple reasons for McDonald’s success so far this year — for example, we believe fresh-beef Quarter Pounders and Quarter Pounder line extensions have sold rather well — this report focuses on improvements that we believe have been made in terms of average speed at the drive-thru. We believe there is room for significant improvement on this front, those improvements have started, and there’s plenty more to be had over time — all of which is good news for future same-store sales trends. We reiterate our Buy rating on MCD and note the following:

Read More

PZZA (Post-Call) Delivers Better-than-Feared 2019 Targets

By Mark Kalinowski Published on February 26, 2019 at 12:00 AM

After today’s market close, Papa John’s (PZZA; Neutral) reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $0.15, above our $0.12 forecast, and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.15. The Q4 North American same-store sales decline of -8.1% had been previously announced.

Read More