MCD Updating our Forecasts 2.19

By Mark Kalinowski Published on February 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Based on our checks related to January and the first half of February, we tweak upward our U.S. same-store sales forecast for Q1E by +30 basis points, to +3.3%. This places us 40 basis points above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +2.9%. We are encouraged by what we hear about Q1 so far, particularly given that weather has been a challenge at some points over January/February. McDonald’s initiatives — including fresh-beef quarter-pound beef patties (amongst other menu improvements) and the recent Big Mac Bacon, Quarter Pounder Bacon, and Cheesy Bacon Fries promotion — appear to be resonating well with guests. We do caution that the quarter is not over yet, and in particular we still have March to go, so of course our updated +3.3% forecast for Q1E U.S. same-store sales remain subject to change depending on our checks related to the back half of the quarter.

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