By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on May 6, 2021 at 1:26 PM
Earlier today, Papa John’s reported adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.90, well above our $0.53 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.56. The EPS outperformance appears mainly driven by much better-than-expected same-store sales. The Q1 tax rate of 20.4% was a little more favorable than our 21.0% estimate, as well.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 7, 2021 at 4:02 PM
With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for IHOP by +600 basis points, to -5.0%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at -9.9%. Our increased forecast represents (inter-related) factors including: (1) general improvement in one-year and two-year family dining sector sales trends, (2) benefits from stimulus-related consumer spending in March, and (3) “spring fever” perhaps finding itself a little more in bloom than usual amongst consumers this time of the year, given all that has been battled over the last 12+ months.
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 5, 2021 at 4:58 PM
With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s by +190 basis points, to +12.2%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this becomes the new “high on the sell-side forecast.” Sell-side consensus is presently at +9.7%.
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