By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 7, 2021 at 4:23 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q1E to -7.8%. This 7.8% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about -27% for January 2021, -26% for February 2021, and +54% for March (helped by super-easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020… we believe family dining sector same-store sales declined by about -45% during March 2020 as a whole, getting worse as that month progressed).
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 5, 2021 at 4:04 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1E to +10.9%. This +10.9% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +10% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), +2% for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +30% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020).
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By Ryan D. Lavender
Published on April 1, 2021 at 4:57 PM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Fast-Casual Index for Q1E to +12.9%. This is based on what we believe was better-than-expected same-store sales for the fast-casual sector in both January and March, partially offset by a weakerthan-expected February. Of particular note is that for the week of March 16-22, we believe that segment same-store sales rose by 50%+ on a one-year basis, or by positive mid-teens on a two-year basis. Factors driving this mid-to-late March surge appear to include: (1) consumer-related stimulus spending, (2) growing consumer optimism as more folks get vaccinated for Covid-19, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for delivery, including for Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG; Not Rated) and Wingstop (WING; Not Rated).
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