DPZ (Post-Call): Among the Best 2-Year Numbers in the US Restaurant Industry

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 29, 2021 at 1:14 PM

Earlier today, Domino’s reported Q1 EPS of $3.00. This was higher than our $2.95 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.94. We attribute the EPS outperformance to better-than-expected same-store sales in both the U.S. and International business segments.

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 13, 2021 at 4:45 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1E to +7.1%. This is the first positive quarter since Q4 2019’s +4.2% showing. The Q1 2020/21 two-year number works out to +3.5%. (The Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index declined by -3.4% in Q1 2020, followed by its worst-ever performance
of -17.5% in Q2 2020.)

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 8, 2021 at 4:57 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1E to +7.3%. This +7.3% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +7% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), flattish for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +23% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020).