MCD (Post-Call) U.S. Same-Store Sales Trends Improving

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 30, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral, $183.93) reported Q1 EPS of $1.47, short of our $1.52 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.55. SG&A/Revenues of 12.5% (versus our 11.7% projection) accounts for the difference between Q1 EPS and our EPS estimate. However, part of this SG&A relates to non-recurring costs, such as $40 million for the company’s cancelation of its biannual worldwide convention, and $20 million for “payments of contractual obligations as [McDonald’s] reduced the scope and ongoing spend in R&D work of certain restaurant technology.”

DPZ Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 31, 2020 at 12:00 AM

We adjust our U.S. blended (company-owned and franchised combined) same-store sales estimates for Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -190 basis points to an actual of +1.6%
Q2E 2020: down by -240 basis points to +0.6%
Q3E 2020: down by -190 basis points to +2.1%
Q4E 2020: stays at +3.5%
Full-year 2020E: down by -170 basis points to +2.0%
Full-year 2021E: up by +50 basis points to +3.5%

PZZA (Post-Call) Brand-Fixing Efforts Bearing Fruit, But EPS Guidance Light

By Mark Kalinowski Published on February 26, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $62.10) reported Q4 2019 adjusted EPS of $0.37. This exceeded our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.33.