YUM (Post-Call): U.S. Same-Store Sales Off to Double-Digit Start in Early 2021

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 4, 2021 at 3:00 PM

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $1.15, above our $1.01 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.01. We calculate that the Q4 adjusted tax rate was approximately 8.5%, much more favorable than our 21.0% estimate and consensus of 20.8%. We further calculate that relative to our tax-rate projection, the actual adjusted Q4 tax rate added about +15 cents to Q4 adjusted EPS. Excluding this factor, Q4 adjusted EPS would have been closer to $1.00.

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DNKN (Post-Call) Improving Sales Trends Closing More Low-Performing Units

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 30, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral, $71.68) reported adjusted Q2 EPS of $0.49, beating our $0.46 estimate, and matching sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.49. Relative to our model, GA&/Revenues caused the upside (18.2% actual vs. 20.0% forecasted).

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MCD (Post-Call) Some Challenges, and Some Bright Spots

By Mark Kalinowski Published on July 28, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Buy, $199.26) reported Q2 EPS of $0.65, short of our $0.85 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.73. There was a $31 million one-time payment to distribution centers for obsolete inventory, and an increase in bad debt reserve (related to rents and royalty deferrals) of $45 million. By our math, these items combined represent about 8 cents on an EPS basis. For more info see today’s 8-K at:
http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000063908/ fea3a523-303b-43df-830a-5228f5ee4148.pdf

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