Earlier today (Thursday, June 10th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for May 2021 — importantly, these data points are on a two-year basis — was up by +5.4%, with two-year traffic off by -5.3%.
May 2021 was the second full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service. To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that much over the remainder of 2021, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.
Earlier today (Thursday, June 6th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of same-store sales for May 2019 increased by +1.1%, with same-store traffic down by -2.1%. The +1.1% showing for May 2019 tied for the 6th-best showing of the last 12 months, and evinces 150 basis points worth of sequential improvement from April 2019’s -0.4% decline.