Quick-Service/Fast-Casual: 2-Year Average Check Gain Holds Mostly Steady in May

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on June 3, 2021 at 9:12 PM

May 2021 was the second full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service. To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that much over the remainder of 2021, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.

MCD (Post-Call): Robust Results Across the McBoard

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 29, 2021 at 1:10 PM

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.92, above our $1.86 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.82. The EPS outperformance was driven by better-than-expected same-store sales in each of McDonald’s three major business segments.

MCD: McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Leads to Updated Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 22, 2021 at 11:42 AM

McDonald’s plans to release its Q1 earnings before the market open on Thursday, April 29th, to be followed that day by the related earnings release conference call. For Q1E, we retain our existing McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales forecast of +12.2%, which lies +190 basis points above current sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +10.3%. Our Q1E EPS estimate remains at $1.86, five cents above consensus of $1.81.