By Mark Kalinowski
Published on February 26, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we introduce our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q1E of +2.5%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January 2019 and the first half of February 2019.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on February 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on our checks related to January and the first half of February, we tweak upward our U.S. same-store sales forecast for Q1E by +30 basis points, to +3.3%. This places us 40 basis points above sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of +2.9%. We are encouraged by what we hear about Q1 so far, particularly given that weather has been a challenge at some points over January/February. McDonald’s initiatives — including fresh-beef quarter-pound beef patties (amongst other menu improvements) and the recent Big Mac Bacon, Quarter Pounder Bacon, and Cheesy Bacon Fries promotion — appear to be resonating well with guests. We do caution that the quarter is not over yet, and in particular we still have March to go, so of course our updated +3.3% forecast for Q1E U.S. same-store sales remain subject to change depending on our checks related to the back half of the quarter.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on February 21, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) reported Q4 2018 adjusted EPS of $0.16, one cent above our $0.15 forecast and the sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.15. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $107.8 million was a little short of our $110.1 million projection and consensus of $108.4 million. Company-operated restaurant margins of 16.0% were short of our 17.5% forecast and consensus of 17.4%.
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