MCD (Post-Call) Lots of Moving McPieces…What do They All Add Up to

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 30, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, McDonald’s reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $1.97, ahead of our $1.91 forecast and sell-side consensus of $1.89. We calculate that the adjusted tax rate was about 19.1%, versus our 24.5% forecast and consensus of 24.4%. If the adjusted tax rate had matched consensus, then by our math adjusted EPS would have come in closer to $1.84. McDonald’s points out the following long-term targets in today’s 8-K:

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MCD Detailed Results from Survey of 700+ McDonald’s Franchisees re Delivery

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 28, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Recently, the National Owners Association (NOA) — the first-ever independent franchisee association for McDonald’s U.S. — surveyed McDonald’s U.S. franchisees regarding delivery and the economics surrounding delivery. In this report, you will find the results of that survey.

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Modifying our Q4E Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4E from +1.2% to +1.8%. Our key takeaway: we believe that U.S. quick-service burgers chains in aggregate enjoyed their best same-store sales month during December 2018 since February 2016. The 60 basis-point increase in this index of ours is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during the last half of November and all of December.

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