Based on our math, it looks like Wendy’s is in the process of decisively overtaking Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) as the 2nd-largest burger concept in the U.S., based on domestic systemwide sales.
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q3E to -2.3%. Given all of the upheaval of the last six months, this is a number that should be considered favorably, even though it is in negative territory. It marks substantial sequential improvement from Q2 2020’s -17.5% figure, and is even better than Q1 2020’s -3.3% showing.
For the second time in a month, we raise our Q3E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s U.S. — this time by +60 basis points, to +3.6%. This is based on robust same-store sales from the second half of September, thanks largely to: (1) a limitedtime promotional tie-in with rapper Travis Scott (which launched September 8th), and (2) a limited-time offer featuring Spicy Chicken McNuggets (which launched September 16th). Both of these promotions did so well that at times restaurants were sold out of the items involved well before the official promotional end dates.