By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 12, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With Wendy’s (WEN; Buy) planning to launch a nationwide breakfast business in Q1 2020, and aiming to generate $1 billion in annualized sales from this initiative fairly quickly, we thought it might be wise to examine exactly which restaurant concepts out there might be most at risk from share loss from Wendy’s breakfast launch — and to what (quantified) degree. In our view, the publicly-traded concepts most at risk include McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral), Burger King (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]), and Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Wendy’s (WEN; Buy) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.19, coming in ahead of our $0.15 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.15. We attribute the earnings beat to two main factors: (1) better-thanexpected success of Spicy Chicken Nuggets, which drove Q3 same-store sales up by +4.4%, the third-best quarterly showing this decade, and (2) a more favorable-thanexpected adjusted tax rate.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on October 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral) reported third-quarter EPS of $2.11, falling short of our $2.21 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.21. Tax rate accounts for $0.02-$0.03 of the difference between actual and our forecast. Other factors behind the EPS miss include lower-thananticipated revenues from franchisee/affiliates ($3.014 billion actual vs. $3.090 billion projected), weaker-than-projected franchised margins (81.4% actual vs. 81.9% projected), lower-than-anticipated Other Operating Income ($49.5 million actual vs. $66.2 million estimated), and higher-than-forecasted SG&A/Revenues (10.0% actual vs. 9.8% forecasted).
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