DPZ: Updating our EPS and Same-Store Sales Forecasts

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 29, 2021 at 4:06 PM

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Domino’s by +260 basis points, to +10.5%. As of this writing, sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) is at +9.4%. Our increased forecast represents factors including: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for pizza delivery.

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Casual Dining Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 24, 2021 at 4:22 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Casual Dining Index for Q1E to -1.2%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during January, February, and the first half of March. Our implied numbers for this January, February, and all of March are approximately -19%, -20%, and +45%, respectively. (Please note that equal-weighting these months would result in a number equal to +1.7%, but due to much less relative business in March 2020 as compared to January/February 2020, the March 2021 figure is relatively less weighted when we calculate our Q1 index number.)

DIN (Post-Call): Applebee’s Disappoints, But Multiple Silver Linings Emerge

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 2, 2021 at 5:45 PM

Earlier today, Dine Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $0.39, falling short of our recently-reduced $0.85 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.67.