PZZA Some Cheesy Estimate Revisions

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 15, 2020 at 12:00 AM

The price of block cheese has deteriorated from $1.8375 per pound as of March 23rd to $1.01 per pound as of April 14th. In our coverage list, the largest potential beneficiary of this dynamic is Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy), which owns and operates about 18% of its North American store base (or to look at it another way, Papa John’s owns and operates about 11% of its worldwide store base).

PZZA Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates for 2020E & 2021E

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 31, 2020 at 12:00 AM

We adjust our North America blended (company-owned and franchised combined) same-store sales estimates for Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) as follows:
Q1E 2020: up by +130 basis points to an actual of +5.3%
Q2E 2020: down by -30 basis points to +3.7%
Q3E 2020: down by -10 basis points to +2.9%
Q4E 2020: stays at +2.5%
Full-year 2020E: up by +20 basis points to +3.6%
Full-year 2021E: up by +40 basis points to +3.0%

PZZA (Post-Call) Brand-Fixing Efforts Bearing Fruit, But EPS Guidance Light

By Mark Kalinowski Published on February 26, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $62.10) reported Q4 2019 adjusted EPS of $0.37. This exceeded our $0.35 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.33.