By Mark Kalinowski
Published on June 26, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Sometimes fighting the trend is futile, and perhaps this is one of those times — we downgrade the shares of Papa John’s (PZZA) today to Neutral (from Buy), cutting our losses. While we still believe that the Papa John’s brand will be turned around in the long run, near-term risks have noticeably increased from where we sit, and the downgrade is warranted based on: (1) the possibility that founder John Schnatter could seek to sell more of his 19% holding in PZZA once his lock-up expires on August 19th, (2) the possibility that Papa John’s may seek to take on additional debt to fund part/all of the $80 million worth of additional investments announced less than a week ago (thus potentially leading to higher interest expenses; we take down our 2020E EPS estimate by $0.10 to $1.60, placing us $0.08 below sell-side consensus according to Consensus Metrix), and (3) the possibility that the recent $80 million investment announcement may hint at greater franchisee financial difficulties than we had previously been presuming. Even taking into account the stock’s decline over the last few business days, with some additional selling pressure possible starting in mid-August should Mr. Schnatter decide to sell more of his what used to be a 31% stake in PZZA, it appears best to be on the sidelines for now. We note the following:
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on June 20, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Not too long ago, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) filed its Franchise Disclosure Document (FDD) for 2019. In this report, we cite some of the highlights from that document following our review of it, including our review of it in comparison to last year’s Franchise Disclosure Document. For example, we would note that the On-Line Transaction Fee for 2019 is “1.75% of Net Sales via Internet on-line ordering,” as compared to the 2018 FDD which shows that fee as “1.5% of Net Sales via Internet online ordering” at that time. Also, the 2019 FDD shows that — for company-owned restaurants only — food costs represented 29.7% of sales, while labor costs/taxes represented another 21.6% of sales. The average pre-tax cash flow for a companyowned restaurant in 2018 was $131,859, or 12.3% of sales. We maintain our Buy rating on PZZA and note the following:
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on May 29, 2019 at 12:00 AM
We recently met with Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) — including President & CEO Steve Ritchie, Executive Vice President & Chief Operating and Growth Officer Michael R. Nettles, Senior Vice President & CFO Joseph H. Smith, and Vice President of Investor Relations & Strategy Steve Coke — in Louisville, Kentucky. We thank them for their time! Topics of interest that we asked about include new brand ambassador (as well as board member and franchisee) Shaquille O’Neal (a.k.a. Shaq), franchisee financial health, and delivery aggregators. We maintain our Buy rating on PZZA, and note the following:
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