DPZ (Post-Call): Tougher Year-on-Year Comparisons Getting Closer

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 25, 2021 at 5:53 PM

Earlier today, Domino’s reported Q4 EPS of $3.85, above our $3.50 projection, but a little short of sell-side consensus of $3.88 (according to Consensus Metrix). The $3.85 figure includes a +39 cent boost from 2020’s extra, 53rd accounting week. The next 53-week fiscal year for Domino’s will be 2026.

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PZZA (Post-Call): Will Q1 be “Epic”?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 25, 2021 at 5:49 PM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $102.64) reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.40, matching our $0.40 forecast, but coming below sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.45. Keep in mind, special year-end bonuses hampered Q4 EPS by approximately -6 cents, and this may not have been taken into account by some sell-side firms’ estimates.

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Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s (Updated)

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 16, 2021 at 4:59 PM

In December, we published a report — “Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s” — in which we noted that Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen would lap highly challenging same-store sales comparisons before Domino’s and Papa John’s would, and how Popeyes performed might have some lessons for these pizza players. Since then, Popeyes’ parent company Restaurant Brands International (QSR; Not Rated) reported that Popeyes’ Q4 2020 U.S. same-store sales declined by -6.4%. This, of course, lapped Popeyes’ Q4 2019 U.S. same-store sales advance of +37.9% — the best quarter for any publicly-traded restaurant concept of meaningful size of which we are aware.

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