By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 23, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Looking at unit closures announced and planned by large restaurant chains, and comparing these to unit closures from mom-and-pops/independents, goes to show just how large a market-share shift is going on in the U.S. restaurant industry. We look for most, if not all, of this market-share shift in favor of large concepts to persist in the years after 2020.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 19, 2020 at 12:00 AM
We look for Papa John’s to launch Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas nationwide in the U.S. shortly, with December 28, 2020 (the first day of Papa John’s fiscal 2021) one possible official launch date. This would not only be ahead of Super Bowl Sunday (scheduled for February 7, 2021), but also ahead of New Year’s Eve. In any case, it looks like a Q1 2021 launch date is likely, and sooner during that quarter rather than later.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 5, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Papa John’s announced Q3 EPS of $0.35, ahead of our $0.30 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.32 (according to Consensus Metrix). Given an all-time high quarterly cheese cost in Q3 (block cheese in general averaged about $2.25 per pound in Q3) and costs that hampered rival Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $392.52) Q3 EPS — some of these costs COVID-related — PZZA shares could benefit from a “relief factor” as it trades today.
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