Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 29, 2021 at 4:09 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q1E to +11.3%. There may even be potential for upside, based on the following positive factors: (1) quick-service delivery specialists still seem to be more appreciated by consumers in general, (2) stimulus-related consumer spending in January and in March, and (3) the return of the March Madness college basketball tournament — generating TV ratings on par with 2019 levels, unlike many other major sports games/events — seems to be driving demand for delivery.

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YUM: What Concept Could Yum Acquire Next?

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on March 9, 2021 at 4:55 PM

On January 6, 2020, Yum Brands announced its plan to acquire The Habit Burger Grill, which as of full-year 2019 was the 17th-largest burger concept in the U.S. (in terms of domestic systemwide sales, at $450+ million), and in the top 100 overall. The Habit Burger Grill is meaningfully smaller than Yum’s core brands of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut. As such, the acquisition of Habit (which closed on March 18, 2020) suggests that: (1) Yum Brands may be generally acquisitive in the future (incidentally, in keeping with current general industry trends), and (2) it isn’t hesitant to make an acquisition that it believes will create shareholder value in the long term, even if the size of that acquisition isn’t all that large relative to its core brands today.

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YUM (Post-Call): U.S. Same-Store Sales Off to Double-Digit Start in Early 2021

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on February 4, 2021 at 3:00 PM

Earlier today, Yum Brands reported Q4 2020 adjusted EPS of $1.15, above our $1.01 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.01. We calculate that the Q4 adjusted tax rate was approximately 8.5%, much more favorable than our 21.0% estimate and consensus of 20.8%. We further calculate that relative to our tax-rate projection, the actual adjusted Q4 tax rate added about +15 cents to Q4 adjusted EPS. Excluding this factor, Q4 adjusted EPS would have been closer to $1.00.

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