DPZ Updating Our Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 21, 2020 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we raise our Q3E same-store sales forecasts and EPS estimate for Domino’s. For U.S. same-store sales, we move up our Q3E projection by +200 basis points, to +14.0% (above current sell-side consensus of +12.1%, according to Consensus Metrix). We believe that U.S. quick-service pizza sector same-store sales momentum coming off of an exceptional Q2 has been retained to a greater degree than anticipated so far into Q3, and it’s likely Domino’s — the largest pizza concept in the U.S. — is participating in this trend.

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DPZ The Night King Commands Us to Update Our Forecasts Ahead of the Q1 Release

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Ahead of Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) first quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, April 24th, we raise our Q1 U.S. (blended) samestore sales forecast by +160 basis points, to +4.5%. Based on our checks, we believe that Domino’s latest ad campaign — centered around “Points for Pies” — has been successful. Consumers apparently have responded well to the aspect of this that points can be earned from “eating any pizza you love, from anywhere. Yep, even if it’s not Domino’s.” Of course, many of the things that Domino’s has done well for years — an improved core product, technological excellence, the “Piece of the Pie Rewards” loyalty program, etc. — are all playing an integrated role in what appears to have been another successful quarter for the brand.

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Tidbits re U.S. Pizza-Sector Market Share Trends, MCD, and Luckin Coffee

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 7, 2019 at 12:00 AM

We briefly note the following tidbits regarding pizza-sector market-share trends in the U.S., McDonald’s (MCD; Buy), and privately-held Luckin Coffee:

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