PZZA (Post-Call) Well Blow Me Down! April Same-Store Sales Strong 2 the Finish

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16) reported Q1 EPS of $0.15, short of our $0.40 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.41. However, the difference largely results from an accounting change in which “adjusted (non-GAAP) financial results… no longer present certain financial assistance provided to the North American system in the form of royalty relief and discretionary marketing fund investments as Special charges.” For Q1 2020, the impact to adjusted EPS from this change was -26 cents. In other words, excluding this change, Q1 EPS would have been $0.41 — one cent above our projection and matching consensus.

PZZA Adjusting Q2E-Q3E EPS Estimates a Little More

By Mark Kalinowski Published on May 6, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today regarding Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $76.16), we adjusted our 2020E EPS estimate downward by -40 cents to $1.15, reflecting: (1) a -50 cent hit for Q1A-Q3E adjustments to how Papa John’s records franchisee financial assistance (related to royalty relief and the discretionary marketing fund), with -26 cents of this having taken place in Q1, and our estimate of -12 cent hits each to Q2E and Q3E, and (2) +10 cents reflecting better-than-expected April North American same-store sales trends and the momentum resulting from this.

DPZ (Post-Call) Investments and Currencies Likely to Slice Q2 EPS

By Mark Kalinowski Published on April 23, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Neutral, $364.00) reported Q1 EPS of $3.07, well above our $2.35 forecasts and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.32. The earnings beat is largely due to tax rate, which came in at -3.7% (i.e., a helpful tax rate) vs. our 19.0% forecast and consensus of 18.7%. If the Q1 tax rate had been 19.0% (and nothing else in the Q1 income statement was changed), we estimate that Q1 EPS would have been about $2.40 — an earnings beat, but nevertheless not quite as good as what appeared at first glance. On today’s conference call, management commented that the Q1 tax rate reflected “tax benefits on equitybased compensation,” and that it anticipates continued volatility in the tax rate going forward.