Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Same-Store Sales Index

By Mark Kalinowski Published on January 11, 2021 at 12:00 AM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Pizza Index for Q4E to +12.1%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during October, November, and December. We believe that December same-store sales were likely the best month of the quarter, while October was helped by arguably the busiest Halloween ever for pizza delivery/carryout.

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Look to Popeyes to Learn about Domino’s and Papa John’s

By Mark Kalinowski Published on December 1, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Both Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $392.57) and Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $80.36) begin lapping very difficult year-over-year domestic same-store sales comparisons in Q2 2021. What can we learn about the recent history of restaurant concepts that have lapped difficult comparisons, in this regard? And, what might Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (owned by Restaurant Brands International [QSR; Not Rated]) teach us about what to expect for Domino’s and Papa John’s domestic same-store sales in 2021? Our bottom line is that Domino’s and Papa John’s could end up lapping these tough numbers better than the Street currently anticipates.

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PZZA An “Epic” Update to our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 19, 2020 at 12:00 AM

We look for Papa John’s to launch Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas nationwide in the U.S. shortly, with December 28, 2020 (the first day of Papa John’s fiscal 2021) one possible official launch date. This would not only be ahead of Super Bowl Sunday (scheduled for February 7, 2021), but also ahead of New Year’s Eve. In any case, it looks like a Q1 2021 launch date is likely, and sooner during that quarter rather than later.

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