PZZA (Post-Call) A Welcome Return to Positive Comps December 18th Field Trip

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy) reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.21, short of our $0.23 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.22. The company’s full-year 2019 adjusted EPS target range stays at $1.00-$1.20. We keep our Q4E EPS projection unchanged at $0.35. Given that Q3 missed our EPS estimate by two cents, this brings down our full-year 2019E EPS forecast by two cents, to $1.15. Please note that as of this writing, sell-side consensus is at $1.13. (Our full-year 2020E and 2021E EPS estimates remain unchanged at $1.55 and $1.75, respectively.)

Read More

The BlackBox Index for February 2019 Disappoints…

By Mark Kalinowski Published on March 7, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today (Thursday, March 7th), we learned that the BlackBox Index of samestore sales for February 2019 declined by -0.6%, with same-store traffic down by -3.7%. The -0.6% showing for February 2019 marks meaningful sequential deceleration from the +2.0% number from January 2019 and the +2.0% figure from December 2018, which had been the best monthly numbers since August 2015. February was hampered to a large degree by weather (although we’d note January experienced some bad weather too, and January clearly seemed to shrug off that issue much more easily), particularly on the east coast and in the midwest. (February 2019 same-store sales were positive in California, the southeast, and the southwest.)

Read More