DIN Adios to Our Prior Q3E Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 29, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Given weaker-than-expected same-store sales trends in the family-dining and casualdining sector quarter-to-date, we lower our Q3E same-store sales forecasts for IHOP and Applebee’s (both owned by Dine Brands [DIN; Neutral]). For IHOP, our Q3E samestore sales estimate is reduced by -140 basis points, to +0.8%, which becomes the new “low on the sell-side” forecast, according to Consensus Metrix data. For Applebee’s, we take down our Q3E projection by -150 basis points, to -1.5%, as compared to current sell-side consensus of -1.2%.

WEN (Post-Call) Easier Same-Store Sales Comparisons to be Lapped in 2H

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 7, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.18 — one cent above our $0.17 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.17. We would note that D&A/Revenues came in at 7.2% actual vs. our 7.7% estimate, accounting for the $0.01 difference between the actual and our model. Given the one-cent EPS beat, we raise our full-year 2019E EPS estimate by one cent, to $0.64. (FYI, our full-year 2020E EPS forecast stays at $0.78.)

DNKN (Post-Call) Looking Beyond Q2

By Mark Kalinowski Published on August 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral) reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.86, surpassing our $0.82 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.82. Dunkin’ notes that about two cents of the EPS beat is due to “recognized excess tax benefits.”