We revise our Q1E tax-rate projection to 28.5% (from 24.8%). This change has the effect of lowering our Q1E and our full-year 2019E EPS estimates by $0.09 each, to $1.71 and $8.01, respectively. (Our full-year 2020E EPS forecast remains unchanged at $8.75.)
Earlier today, Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) reported Q4 2018 EPS of $2.62, short of our $2.71 projection and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $2.69. The tax rate in Q4 2018 was 17.0%, versus our 20.8% estimate and consensus of 20.8%. By our math, Q4 EPS would have been closer to $2.50 if the Q4 tax rate had been closer to our forecast/consensus. Restaurant-level margins at company-owned units were 23.1%, versus our 24.0% estimate. G&A/Revenues was 11.2% actual vs. our 10.8% projection.
A number of restaurant companies are scheduled to report quarterly earnings over the February 20-26 time frame, including The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral), Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral), Dine Brands (DIN; Buy), Domino’s (DPZ; Buy), and Papa John’s (PZZA; Neutral). In this report, we look at the set-up into the print for each of these five companies: