By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we retain our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast at +3.2%. In the previous 80 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 73 times (91.3% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 56 times (70.0% of the time).
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 1, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on our latest proprietary, data-driven checks, and what appears to have been a better-than-expected March, we tweak our full-Q1E same-store sales forecast for McDonald’s (MCD; Buy) U.S. business upward by +20 basis points, to +3.2%. This places us 30 basis points above the current sell-side consensus of +2.9%. In March, we believe core menu items — including fresh-beef Quarter Pounders (both with and without bacon) — sold quite well. Toward the end of March, McDonald’s U.S. began promoting a Quarter Pounder with Cheese Deluxe (as well as the Quarter Pounder with Cheese Bacon). One aspect we like of these burgers is that they are relatively simple operationally, with (for example) SKUs that are already found in the restaurants.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Based on the results of our latest proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, we adjust our Q4E U.S. same-store sales forecast upward by +40 basis points, to +2.6%. In the previous 79 iterations of the McDonald’s Franchisee Survey, the survey result has been within 200 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 72 times (91.1% of the time), and within 100 basis points of the McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales number reported shortly thereafter 55 times (69.6% of the time).
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