Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 13, 2021 at 4:45 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q1E to +7.1%. This is the first positive quarter since Q4 2019’s +4.2% showing. The Q1 2020/21 two-year number works out to +3.5%. (The Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index declined by -3.4% in Q1 2020, followed by its worst-ever performance
of -17.5% in Q2 2020.)

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 8, 2021 at 4:57 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1E to +7.3%. This +7.3% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +7% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), flattish for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +23% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020).

YUM: Updating Our Same-Store Sales and EPS Estimates

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 8, 2021 at 4:50 PM

With this report, we boost our Q1E same-store sales forecasts as follows: (1) for Taco Bell, up by +1 percentage point to +7% (according to Consensus Metrix, sell-side consensus is at +5.7%, although be aware that Yum Brands does not report its samestore sales out past the decimal point), and (2) for KFC U.S., up by +1 percentage point to +13% (consensus is at +11.6%).