By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 30, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, McDonald’s (MCD; Neutral, $183.93) reported Q1 EPS of $1.47, short of our $1.52 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $1.55. SG&A/Revenues of 12.5% (versus our 11.7% projection) accounts for the difference between Q1 EPS and our EPS estimate. However, part of this SG&A relates to non-recurring costs, such as $40 million for the company’s cancelation of its biannual worldwide convention, and $20 million for “payments of contractual obligations as [McDonald’s] reduced the scope and ongoing spend in R&D work of certain restaurant technology.”
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on June 4, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index for Q2E to +3.0% (up from +2.5% previously). This increase reflects update to various indices we have made over the last 2-3 weeks, most recently a second intra-quarter bump up to our Kalinowski Family Dining Index. We now look for the Kalinowski Restaurant Industry Index — which aggregates the domestic same-store sales for 48 publicly-traded restaurant concepts, and weights them based on those concepts’ U.S. systemwide sales — to be the best in Q2 2019 since Q4 2015. Our Buy-rated stocks remain Denny’s (DENN), Dine Brands (DIN), Domino’s (DPZ), McDonald’s (MCD), Papa John’s (PZZA), and Yum Brands (YUM). As of this writing we are most confident about our above-consensus Q2E same-store sales forecasts for Denny’s, IHOP (owned by Dine Brands), and McDonald’s U.S.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on June 3, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we increase our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q2E for the second time this quarter. This time, we increase the figure by +60 basis points, to +3.0%. Our updated figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment over the course of May 2019.
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