By Mark Kalinowski
Published on August 21, 2020 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we raise our Q3E same-store sales forecasts and EPS estimate for Domino’s. For U.S. same-store sales, we move up our Q3E projection by +200 basis points, to +14.0% (above current sell-side consensus of +12.1%, according to Consensus Metrix). We believe that U.S. quick-service pizza sector same-store sales momentum coming off of an exceptional Q2 has been retained to a greater degree than anticipated so far into Q3, and it’s likely Domino’s — the largest pizza concept in the U.S. — is participating in this trend.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on June 10, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Earlier today, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy, $82.37) provided a business update as part of an 8-K filing. Given the information in that 8-K, we lower our fiscal Q3E (calendar Q2E) EPS estimate by -53 cents to -$0.63, and we reduce our fiscal Q4E (calendar Q3E) EPS forecast by -12 cents to $0.27. These updates lower our full-fiscal 2020E EPS projection by -65 cents, to $0.75. In addition, given this lower anticipated base of earnings coming off of fiscal 2020E, we take down our fiscal 2021E EPS estimate by -50 cents to $2.25.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on November 7, 2018 at 12:00 AM
Please note that this report is best read in conjunction with the report we published yesterday, “WEN (Pre-Call): Q3 Same-Store Sales a Little Frosty.” (One correction we’d like to make about that report: our Q3E same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s was actually +1.0%, not +1.5% — we had actually lowered our forecast to +1.0% in our October 4th report “WEN: Our Data-Driven Checks Regarding September Sales Suggest…” Note that this does not change the Kalinowski Forecast track record over Q2 2011-Q3 2018 of being within 100 basis points of the same-store sales number Wendy’s reports 70.0% of the time, and being within 200 basis points of the samestore sales number Wendy’s reports 96.7% of the time.)
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