DENN Adjusting Our Q4E Forecasts

By Mark Kalinowski Published on December 3, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Given deceleration in same-store sales trends for the U.S. family dining sector, we reduce our Q4E Denny’s U.S. same-store sales projection by -600 basis points, to -28.0%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this places us as the low estimate on the sell-side in this regard. As of this writing, sell-side consensus is at -22.2%.

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SBUX Adjusting Estimates Following Business Update

By Mark Kalinowski Published on June 10, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Starbucks (SBUX; Buy, $82.37) provided a business update as part of an 8-K filing. Given the information in that 8-K, we lower our fiscal Q3E (calendar Q2E) EPS estimate by -53 cents to -$0.63, and we reduce our fiscal Q4E (calendar Q3E) EPS forecast by -12 cents to $0.27. These updates lower our full-fiscal 2020E EPS projection by -65 cents, to $0.75. In addition, given this lower anticipated base of earnings coming off of fiscal 2020E, we take down our fiscal 2021E EPS estimate by -50 cents to $2.25.

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DNKN (Post-Call) Not Spooked by a Favorable Q3 Tax Rate

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 31, 2019 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dunkin’ Brands Group (DNKN; Neutral) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.90, surpassing our $0.81 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.81. We attribute about $0.06-$0.07 of the EPS beat to a better-than-expected adjusted tax rate (21.9% actual vs. 27.7% forecasted and 27.8% consensus).

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