By Mark Kalinowski
Published on January 6, 2019 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Family Dining Index for Q4E from +1.6% to +2.0%. This 40 basis-point increase is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance so far for this segment during the second half of November and the first half of December. (We would note that this increase follows the 40 basis-point increase we already made to this index back on December 3rd; for more details please refer to our report of that date entitled “Updating our Q4E Kalinowski Family Dining Index.”)
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on December 12, 2018 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q4E from +1.6% to +1.2%. (This follows our November 4th adjustment from +2.0% to +1.6%.) Today’s 40 basis-point decrease is based on our latest proprietary checks/ data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during November, which looks like it was one of the weaker months during 2018 for burger-segment same-store sales. In part, the adjustment also reflects the reduction in our Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) same-store sales forecast for Q4E yesterday to a new sell-side low (according to Consensus Metrix data) of 0.0%. (For more information, please refer to our December 11th report “WEN: Our Data-Driven Checks Regarding November Sales Suggest…”)
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on December 11, 2018 at 12:00 AM
Our data-driven checks regarding Wendy’s (WEN; Neutral) suggest softness during November. As such, we lower our Q4E same-store sales for the Wendy’s North America system by 70 basis points to a new sell-side low (according to Consensus Metrix data) of 0.0%. Our checks for November 2018 were the worst for any month in our process since those we did for February 2012. While our 70 basis-point reduction in our Q4E same-store sales forecast is not enough to budge our $0.15 EPS estimate for Q4E, upside potential on both the same-store sales front and the EPS front in the near term may be limited. And, depending on how December goes, there may be some downside risk. We reiterate our Neutral rating on WEN, and note the following:
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