Quick-Service/Fast-Casual: 2-Year Average Check Gain Holds Mostly Steady in May

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on June 3, 2021 at 9:12 PM

May 2021 was the second full month in the U.S. to lap a year-ago month that was affected by the pandemic and related issues. How is average check changing in the U.S. quick-service and fast-casual segments given these recent dynamics? Our bottom line: average check is holding in better than expected for fast-casual and quick-service. To the extent two-year trends in average check don’t deteriorate all that much over the remainder of 2021, this could be a positive for multiple companies, and potentially their investors as well.

Updating our Q1E Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Same-Store Sales Index

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 8, 2021 at 4:57 PM

With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Other Index for Q1E to +7.3%. This +7.3% figure reflects implicit monthly numbers of about +7% for January 2021 (helped by consumer spending driven by stimulus), flattish for February 2021 (reflecting a dwindling of the prior month’s stimulus benefits, and coupled with bad weather across a good chunk of the U.S. in mid-to-late February), and +23% for March (helped by more stimulus-related consumer spending, plus easy year-over-year comparisons being lapped from mid-to-late March 2020).

WEN: Raising our Q1E U.S. Same-Store Sales Forecast to the Sell-Side High

By Ryan D. Lavender Published on April 5, 2021 at 4:54 PM

With this report, we increase our Q1E U.S. same-store sales forecast for Wendy’s by +150 basis points, to +11.5%. According to Consensus Metrix data, this becomes the new “high on the sell-side forecast.” Sell-side consensus is presently at +10.0%.