By Mark Kalinowski
Published on September 29, 2020 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we update our data-driven Kalinowski Quick-Service Burger Index for Q3E to +3.6%. This figure is based on our latest proprietary checks/data as regards same-store sales performance for this segment during July 2020 and August 2020, as well as our best guess for what September 2020 is bringing us. The approximate monthly figures we use are +2% to +3% for July 2020, +3% to +4% for August 2020, and approximately +6% for September 2020.
Read More
By Mark Kalinowski
Published on August 17, 2020 at 12:00 AM
Quick-service pizza sector same-store sales have performed the best of any sector in the U.S. restaurant industry the last few months. This likely means that some large franchise companies who seek opportunities within the restaurant industry may examine possibilities in the pizza sector. Carryout/delivery pizza plays very well in a world uncertain about how COVID-19 and related issues will impact the future. On top of that, not only has Papa John’s (PZZA; Buy, $96.15) put up great domestic same-store sales numbers the last few months — up by +30.3% for June 29-July 26, of example — it also seeks franchisees. In this report, we examine some possible franchised companies that are not currently in the pizza space, but could join in under the right circumstances. All in all, we believe that Papa John’s is poised to reward shareholders by (1) improving the quality of its franchisee base, and (2) at some point engaging in meaningful refranchising activity, which could lead to a higher valuation multiple for PZZA shares.
Read More
By Mark Kalinowski
Published on August 4, 2020 at 12:00 AM
With this report, we upgrade the shares of Wendy’s (WEN) to Buy (from Neutral). The reasons for our upgrade include: (1) U.S. same-store sales trends that look better than the Street may expect (particularly for July, which may have positive implications for momentum for Q3 as a whole), (2) the possibility that the 5% or so of the Wendy’s worldwide store base that is company-owned produced higher-thananticipated restaurant-level margins in Q2 (and if so, what this may imply about the possibilities for such margins in Q3 and Q4), and (3) the recent nationwide launch of the Wendy’s Rewards loyalty program, which could help spur sales better than they otherwise would be through Q2 2021.
Read More
