PZZA (Post-Call) A Q3 EPS Beat… Will Epic Stuffed Crust Pizzas Launch in Q1

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 5, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Papa John’s announced Q3 EPS of $0.35, ahead of our $0.30 forecast and sell-side consensus of $0.32 (according to Consensus Metrix). Given an all-time high quarterly cheese cost in Q3 (block cheese in general averaged about $2.25 per pound in Q3) and costs that hampered rival Domino’s (DPZ; Buy, $392.52) Q3 EPS — some of these costs COVID-related — PZZA shares could benefit from a “relief factor” as it trades today.

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WEN (Post-Call) Fundamentally Solid Conf Call Featuring Wendy’s on on Nov. 16th

By Mark Kalinowski Published on November 4, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Wendy’s reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.19, which exceeded our $0.16 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.17. Drivers of the outperformance included better-than-expected restaurant-level margins (16.9% actual vs. our 15.3% projection and consensus at 15.6%) and G&A/ Revenues (10.5% actual vs. our 11.1% forecast and consensus at 11.0%). Thirdquarter adjusted EBITDA reached $118.8 million, above our $108.8 million estimate and also above consensus of $112.0 million. These results are impressive given the extra marketing spend of about $6.2 million focused on the breakfast daypart that was made in Q3 (and for which we expect ~$6.5 million in Q4E).

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CAKE (Post-Call) Bakes Up More Sequential Same-Store Sales Improvement

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 29, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After Thursday’s market close, The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE; Neutral, $29.94) reported adjusted Q3 EPS of -$0.33, better than our forecast of -$0.45, and also better than sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.37.

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