DIN (Post-Call) Applebee’s Comeback Impressive But G&A Costs Rising

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 28, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Earlier today, Dine Brands — parent company of the Applebee’s and IHOP restaurant concepts — reported adjusted Q3 EPS of $0.80, coming in well ahead of our $0.22 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of $0.37. A lowerthan-expected Q3 tax rate helped EPS by roughly +20 cents; we look for the tax rate to be at (or near) 26% in 2021E, but for Q4E we now project a tax rate of 41%. (Management does not quantify what to expect for the Q4 2020 tax rate, but does say to “expect it to be significantly higher than the normal statutory rate… a very high effective tax rate. It is possible that even our updated 41.0% forecast might be too low.)

DENN (Post-Call) Q3 EPS and Same-Store Sales Surpass Sell-Side Consensus

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 27, 2020 at 12:00 AM

After Tuesday’s market close, Denny’s reported adjusted Q3 EPS of +$0.01, which was ahead of our -$0.03 forecast and sell-side consensus (according to Consensus Metrix) of -$0.03. We attribute the Q3 EPS beat largely to higher-than-anticipated company-owned restaurant margins (1.7% actual — or roughly -3% to -4% excluding an approximate “$1.5 million of favorable reserve adjustments and tax credits related to the CARES Act”) vs. our forecast (-6.5% projected). This more than offset higherthan-anticipated G&A/Revenues (19.1% actual vs. our 17.5% estimate) and D&A/ Revenues (5.7% actual vs. 5.3% estimate).

MCD Part 2 of McDonald’s Franchisee Survey Focuses on Breakfast

By Mark Kalinowski Published on October 27, 2020 at 12:00 AM

Today we publish part 2 of 2 of our proprietary McDonald’s Franchisee Survey. Much of this report focuses on the breakfast daypart, which has lagged behind in recovery over the last 3-5 months not just for McDonald’s, but for the restaurant industry in general.