By Mark Kalinowski
Published on March 31, 2020 at 12:00 AM
We lower our U.S. same-store sales estimates for Dunkin’ (owned by Dunkin’ Brands Group [DNKN; Neutral]) as follows:
Q1E 2020: down by -5.5 percentage points to -3.5%
Q2E 2020: down by -32.0 percentage points to -30.0%
Q3E 2020: down by -17.0 percentage points to -15.0%
Q4E 2020: down by -11.5 percentage points to -10.0%
Full-year 2020E: down by -16.5 percentage points to -14.6%
Full-year 2021E: up by +6.5 percentage points to +8.0%
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on December 10, 2019 at 12:00 AM
In theory, accelerating Starbucks Rewards (U.S. loyalty program) active membership should lead to better Starbucks U.S. same-store sales. But does it, or not? In our correlation of these two metrics over the last 16 quarters, we find that there is indeed a positive correlation.
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By Mark Kalinowski
Published on April 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM
Ahead of Domino’s (DPZ; Buy) first quarter earnings release scheduled for before the market open on Wednesday, April 24th, we raise our Q1 U.S. (blended) samestore sales forecast by +160 basis points, to +4.5%. Based on our checks, we believe that Domino’s latest ad campaign — centered around “Points for Pies” — has been successful. Consumers apparently have responded well to the aspect of this that points can be earned from “eating any pizza you love, from anywhere. Yep, even if it’s not Domino’s.” Of course, many of the things that Domino’s has done well for years — an improved core product, technological excellence, the “Piece of the Pie Rewards” loyalty program, etc. — are all playing an integrated role in what appears to have been another successful quarter for the brand.
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